Italy was underrated in this tournament before with their aged lineup and less stars. In recent years, Serie A has been dwindling also with scarcely great Apennine players. For example, the underwhelming Mario Balotelli who made himself famous in the last edition failed to squeeze into the 23-man roster. However, against the odds, manager Antonio Conte led the weakest Azzurri in recent years to show their Italian defense during the Group E campaign. Even the star-studded Belguim got beaten by them.

Since Tiki-taka takes shape, the Spain national team and Barcelona used to dominate European and world football. But Tiki-taka was lucubrated by others in these few years. And now Spainish football's dominance has been shrinking. Therefore the Spaniards could not even went through the group stage of 2014 World Cup, and they have surprisingly lost their Euro 2016 group match against the Croatians. Nevertheless, over the past few years, Spanish football has been superior to Italian football both in international level and in club level.

In consideration of Kelly criterion and Betfair's early betting, Italy is unlikely to win this clash. We recommend a draw for Spain within 90 minutes.

Prediction

Draw

Team Facts

Italy

😊 Under the circumstance of early advance, Italy's final group loss would not hurt their morale.
😊 Italy already known they will be facing their nemesis Spain in the final group game. Thus, manager Antonio Conte rotated 8 players for that game in the hope of reserving strength. The Azzurri are determined to take revenge in this last-16 tie for Euro 2012 final defeat.
😊 Italy have shown a brand-new Italian defense in this tournament. Antonio Conte successfuly replicated Juventus' defensive line. Other than that, he played 3-5-2 to the best as well.
😊 The Italian team's average age is pretty old with many 31 plus years old veterans in defesne. So they maybe weaker than their oppnents on fighting for lost possessions and turn-arounds. Can they use overall movement to make up for individual insufficiency?
😊 Betfair's large deal shows that there is no bet for Italian victory. With a market of +0/0.5, Italy is not expected to win this match.

Spain

😊 Spain have shockingly lost their last game against Croatia with 1-2, which shows their morale and concentration were slack.
😡 Spain have only lost once against Italy in recent 10 years, not to mention that they have beaten Italy 4-0 in Euro 2012 final, thereby gaining a superior mentality since then.
😊 Spain's Tiki-taka is able to restraint Italy's zone defense.
😊 Before losing to Croatia, Spain held a record of 14 European Championship unbeaten games with consecutive 7 games without conceding a goal. This poweful team is one of the favourites in this tournament.

Data Analysis

Italy

😡 Recent 5 Games: 4 Wins, 0 Draw and 1 Loss (80% Winning Rate)
😡 Recent 5 Games: 6 Goals Scored
😡 Recent 5 Games: 1 Goal Conceded
😡 7 Encounters in the European Championship: 2 Wins, 3 Draws and 2 Losses. 5 Goals Scored. 12 Goals Conceded.
😊 Conte's Winning Rate in the European Championship: 75%
😊 Conte's Winning Rate with Italy: 50%

Spain

😊 Recent 5 Games: 3 Wins, 0 Draw, 2 Losses (60% Wining Rate)
😊 Recent 5 Games: 11 Goals Scored
😡 Recent 5 Games: 4 Goals Conceded
😊 Del Bosque's Winning Rate in the European Championship: 92%
😊 Del Bosque's Winning Rate with Spain: 78%
😊 Kelly Criterion of the Game: 31,3,3 (Bookmakers highly agreed that Spain drawing this game with a market of -0/0.5.)